Some mangrove species in the Chilika and Sundarbans along the east coast and Dwarka and Porbandar along the west coast of India are likely to decline and move inland by 2070 due to a decline in suitable habitat in response to rainfall and sea level changes, a prediction model-based study said. The study can help identify highly suitable areas for conservation and management and develop conservation strategies for the future.
Mangroves support numerous ecosystem services and help reduce coastal ecological risks, yet they are one of the critically endangered ecosystems that are rapidly declining due to climate change, sea level fluctuations and human activities. Limited understanding of mangrove spatial distribution and species habitat requirements has reduced the success of conservation initiatives in many parts of the Indian coast. This underscores the urgent need to develop modeling studies to identify conservation target areas at spatio-temporal scales, specifically in mangrove biodiversity-rich areas along the Indian coast.
Scientists from BSIP, an autonomous institution of the Department of Science and Technology (DST), used the Ensemble species distribution model to study the past and present status of two mangrove species and predict their future. They found a significant reduction and landward shift of mangroves in the future (2070) due to the decline of suitable habitats, specifically along the east and west coasts of India in response to future rainfall and sea level changes. In contrast, the maximum extent of mangrove range has been mapped in the past, which has been confirmed by fossil pollen data.
The findings would be useful in implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies in identified hotspots to conserve coastal wetlands and reduce the impact of climate change on coastal vegetation along the Indian coast. The Indian coast is vulnerable to the impacts of climate and sea-level changes, and there are not many attempts to predict and manage coastal wetland species, with limited research being done to map their future habitats. To fill this gap, this study attempted to project the potential impact of climate change on mangroves as a coastal wetland species.
Scientists Pujarini Samal, Jyoti Srivastava, Pooja Nitin Saraf, Bipin Charles and Singarasubramanian SR collected species location points and extracted environmental data from the Worldclim database. They combined climate variables and present species occurrence points in the model to predict the potential distribution and habitat suitability of the species over time and in the area under new climate conditions. Calculating the trend of suitable area change along the Indian coast under past, present and future climate change scenarios, they estimated the total area of ​​suitable habitat for the present, past and future scenarios in km2 for mangrove species.
The study, published in the journal Ecological Informatics, creates a valuable resource for the conservation of coastal wetlands across India by mapping the suitable habitats of key mangrove species in India. The study suggests that the creation of effective buffer zones in these protected areas can narrow the effect of non-conservative areas on the core of the conservation zone, and taking preventive measures can turn some areas into highly suitable areas to facilitate the growth of these mangrove species.
