Mumbai, August 20, 2024 — The Union Ministry of Earth and Sciences (MoES) has called for a detailed explanation from the India Meteorology Department (IMD) after significant inaccuracies were found in the weather forecasts for Mumbai during July 2024. Despite having access to some of the most advanced meteorological instruments, the IMD’s predictions were reportedly off by as much as 42% on multiple days, raising serious concerns about the reliability of the forecasting system.
The discrepancies were highlighted in a recent report by The Indian Express, which revealed that on 13 separate days in July, IMD’s district forecasts for Mumbai were considerably inaccurate. On eight of these days, the forecast errors exceeded 25%, and the IMD also failed to issue timely red alerts on critical days such as July 7 and July 24-25. July is historically the wettest month for Mumbai, making accurate weather forecasting crucial for the city’s safety and preparedness.
In response, MoES Secretary Dr. M. Ravichandran confirmed that the ministry has asked IMD’s central and regional departments to provide a day-by-day explanation for the forecast errors. The goal is to identify which models—handled either by the central or Mumbai-based IMD—were responsible for the inaccuracies and to explore ways to enhance the forecasting system.
“Our objective is to reduce errors in forecasts and improve the predictability of weather events, especially in a complex environment like Mumbai,” said Dr. Ravichandran. He also noted the challenges of forecasting in Mumbai due to its proximity to the ocean and the changing nature of weather patterns, which are increasingly leading to localized, intense rainfall rather than widespread drizzle.
The IMD currently operates two Doppler weather radars in Mumbai, one at Colaba and another in Veravali, both of which are among the most sophisticated instruments in modern meteorology. However, the report’s findings suggest that even with these advanced tools, significant challenges remain in accurately predicting weather events in the region.
The Union Ministry’s inquiry into these forecast discrepancies reflects growing concerns over the reliability of weather predictions in a time of increasing climate variability. The outcome of this investigation could lead to significant changes in how weather forecasting is conducted in Mumbai and other similarly complex environments across the country.
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