Processed meats, including hotdogs, bacon, sausage, and salami, are iconic elements of American food culture. However, emerging evidence suggests these foods are linked to several leading diseases in the United States.
According to recent estimates, the average American should limit their intake of processed meat to improve public health outcomes. Reducing consumption of processed meat by 30 percent, or about 61 grams (2.1 ounces) per week, could prevent 352,900 cases of type 2 diabetes, 92,500 cases of cardiovascular disease, 53,300 cases of colorectal cancer, and 16,700 deaths from any cause over the next decade.
Even a 5 percent reduction in processed meat intake could yield significant public health benefits. Researchers from the University of Edinburgh and the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, highlight the high sodium and saturated fat content in processed meats, recommending that most meat and poultry consumption come from fresh, frozen, or canned forms instead.
Processed meats are more clearly linked to increased risks of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and certain cancers compared to unprocessed red meat like ground beef or sirloin. Despite limited conclusive studies on unprocessed red meat, tentative signs indicate that both processed and unprocessed red meats can lead to negative health outcomes over time.
The researchers used public health and nutrition data from 8,665 individuals to create a ‘microsimulation’ of more than 242 million adults in the US. They found that Americans consume about 29 grams of processed meat and 46.7 grams of unprocessed red meat per day. Models suggest that a 30 percent reduction in both types of meat (totaling 8.7 grams of processed meat and 14 grams of unprocessed red meat per day) could result in more than a million fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, 382,400 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, 84,400 fewer instances of colorectal cancer, and 62,200 fewer all cause deaths over a decade.
Microsimulation models, considered theoretically analogous to randomized controlled trials, show compelling results for processed meat reduction. In 2015, the World Health Organization classified processed meat as “carcinogenic,” and a 2021 meta-analysis found that consuming 50 grams of processed meat daily increases the risk of colorectal cancer by 18 percent. The American Heart Association recommends limiting processed meat to about 100 grams per week, or roughly 14 grams per day.
Despite growing evidence linking processed meat consumption to chronic health issues, national intake in the US has not decreased in the past two decades. Given that nearly 12 percent of the US population has diabetes and nearly 30 percent of those over 65 are affected, reducing processed meat intake could significantly improve public health.
The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, due to be updated in 2025, are foundational for US federal food policy, influencing food assistance programs, school lunches, and primary nutrition education. The study suggests that specific recommendations to reduce processed meat intake could have widespread implications, especially for children and young people.
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