According to the study, more than 80 percent, or 4 out of every 5 glaciers by count, could disappear by the end of this century if fossil fuel use continues. The findings showed that the world could lose up to 41 percent of its total glacier mass this century or as little as 26 percent depending on climate change mitigation efforts today.
Assistant Professor David Rounce of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, USA, led an international effort to create new projections of glacier mass loss over the century under different emissions scenarios. The projections were aggregated into global temperature change scenarios to support adaptation and mitigation discussions, such as those at the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP 27) held in Egypt, the study said.
Even in the best low-emission scenario, where the increase in average global temperature is limited to +1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, more than 25 percent of the ice mass and almost 50 percent of the glaciers will disappear. The number is expected to disappear. Most of these lost glaciers are small (less than one square km) by glacial standards, but their loss can negatively affect local hydrology, tourism, glacier hazards and cultural values, the study said.
Study also says “Rounce’s work provided better context for regional glacier modelling, and he hoped it would prompt climate policymakers to lower their temperature change targets above the 2.7 degrees Celsius limit to be hit by pledges at COP-26, held in Glasgow, UK. Smaller glaciated areas such as central Europe and western Canada and the US will be disproportionately affected by a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius. With a rise of 3 degrees Celsius, the glaciers in these areas will almost completely disappear”.
Rounce’s study advances how models account for different types of glaciers, including tidewater and debris-covered glaciers, the study said. Tidal glaciers refer to glaciers that terminate in the ocean, causing them to lose a lot of mass at this interface. Debris-covered glaciers refer to glaciers that are covered with sand, rocks, and boulders.
Previous work by Rounce has shown that the thickness and distribution of debris can have a positive or negative effect on the rate of glacier melt across an area, depending on the thickness of the debris. The use of supercomputers was essential to support the application of state-of-the-art calibration methods and large sets of different emission scenarios, the study said.
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