Floods in urban areas cost the American people more than $ 106 billion between 1960 and 2016, damaged property, disrupted businesses and took people’s lives in the process. Determining which areas are likely to be flooded during land use variations and varied rainfall and climate may be costly and difficult – and previous flood mapping methods fail to address the uncertainties in flood forecasting. Now, a new study from the University of Georgia reveals a simple, cost-effective way to create flood maps that show uncertainty in flood forecasts. Published in Water magazine, the study was led by professor of engineering Brian Bledsoe, director of UGA’s Institute for Resilient Infrastructure Systems (IRIS), and Tim Stephens, UGA and IRIS alumnus now owned Dynamic Solutions LLC, an engineering, planning and research company. focusing on water sources.
This study provides what researchers describe as “an effective, easy-to-measure method of measuring flood risk levels” by comparing flooding in two urban watersheds: Proctor Creek in Atlanta and Bronx Wash in Tucson, Arizona. “A typical flood risk map One line on a map showing the flood area, often translated by the public and politicians, ‘You will not be flooded if you are outside the line,’ said Bledsoe.
The new approach presented by Bledsoe and Stephens uses the concept of confidence intervals, which show the degree of deviation near a certain forecast, to help determine which homeowners at risk of floods face anywhere. This method is different from regular flood maps because it captures the diversity of potential flood conditions of any area within the map.”We use advanced tools to measure flood line uncertainty and define the overall range of flood risk areas. be 100 meters wide in some areas or more than 1,000 meters wide in other areas along the floodplain, ”said Bledsoe. Previously, this type of detailed analysis was unaffordable in many municipalities, especially in resource-poor communities. very similar and acceptable but takes less time and is easier and less expensive to do, “explains Bledsoe.
Stephens and Bledsoe hope that their approach will produce maps that truly show flood areas with minimal effort and low cost compared to previous routes. They believe their approach should lead to the development of constantly updated maps. “Our simplified route is easily accessible to a wider audience, such as those with limited time, budget or technical resources,” Stephens said. “It could be initiated by a small increase in the level of efforts of conventional flood risk studies, which makes the installation of uncertainties more accessible, more efficient and less expensive.”
To find this method in the hands of workers, researchers have begun contacting their partners in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Georgia Emergency Management Agency, floodplain management organizations and various municipalities. to create the clearest, most accurate flood maps possible, Bledsoe and Stephens worked with social scientists to find the best ways to communicate a complete picture of the dangers in society. ” water over the next 20 years “is much easier to understand than vague statements about floods of 100 years or 1% of the chances of a year to pass,” explains Bledsoe.
Source Journal Reference: Tim Stephens, Brian Bledsoe. Simplified Uncertainty Bounding: An Approach for Estimating Flood Hazard Uncertainty. Water, 2022; 14 (10): 1618 DOI: 10.3390/w14101618
