The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun, and NASA scientists are working with partners in NOAA, FEMA and other organizations to help communities prepare for these storms and respond to their effects. To better understand how hurricanes become stronger and stronger in the face of climate change, NASA is developing technologies and equipment to study our home planet as a complex, flexible system. But what is the recipe for hurricane construction, and how does the behavior of these hurricanes change as the long-term warming of the Earth continues? NASA research answers these questions to help you understand how ocean temperatures change the way storms form and change.
1. What is a storm recipe?
The common term for “hurricanes” is tropical cyclones. Outside of the United States, people also refer to these hurricanes as hurricanes or cyclones. In short, tropical cyclones are windy storms that quickly surround the tropical climate. Storms depend on four key building blocks. First, they need heat or energy stored in the upper part of the ocean. This seawater content empowers a storm similar to the way petrol empowers an engine. Second, they require high humidity in the air, which is reached by evaporation of sea water above 79 ° F (26 ° C). As this humidity rises and meets the cooler air, it creates and enlarges large clouds and thunderstorms. Third, hurricanes require favorable winds. At higher altitudes, these winds need to be weak enough to avoid storms. Fourth, hurricanes require a rear rotation to organize the scattered thunderstorms into one major hurricane that rotates rapidly into a special kind of hurricane. Some of these orbits are derived from the rotation of the earth itself as it orbits its axis.
2. How does climate change interact with storm components?
Sea heat, air humidity, air – all of these ingredients create storm formation. And they are all affected by climate change. The oceans absorb 90% of the heat that has occurred in recent decades as a result of rising greenhouse gases, and a few feet above the earth’s surface have the potential for global warming. But how wind interacts with this heat or ocean energy also plays a key role in storm surges, explains Scott Braun, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
“When you find a hurricane moving over a shallow layer of warm water, strong winds can mix the ocean enough to absorb that deep, cold water, and reduce the available force of the storm,” Braun said. However, if the depth of the warm layer is too high, the storm cannot penetrate the cooler waters, so it is less likely that the cooler water will work to weaken the storm.
Changes in wind speed and direction to different heights, called vertical wind shear, can cause or break a storm. It can prevent storm formation by dissipating heat and moisture. When strong, it can also detect an existing storm by blowing the surface off the ground.”Suppose you have a place where at lower levels, the winds blow eastward for five miles an hour, and for the north, they go west for five miles an hour,” Braun said. “You have winds that try to move the storm to different places as a high altitude, and that often tends to override the storm and may even divide us.”
In future weather forecast weather behavior, wind shear is a major wildcard, as it may weaken or intensify storms in different regions. Studies suggest that some parts of the world may be more windy than others because of global warming, but it is not certain how that will turn out.
3. Does climate change mean more storms each season?
No. Although the warm ocean is a major factor in storm formation, studies show that this warming has not had a significant effect on the number of Atlantic storms that form each year. However, because speculation suggests that as the oceans warm the atmosphere it will also absorb more moisture to form clouds and eat away at storms, scientists expect more severe and wetter storms in the years to come. That is, although ocean temperatures have not yet increased the frequency of storms, these extreme temperatures appear to interfere with the various aspects of constructive storms.
That is why Drs. Mayra Oyola-Merced, a natural scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, encourages people living in areas prone to storms to follow the direction of local authorities before a hurricane strikes.”We know that in the case of tropical climates with rising sea temperatures, we have a higher chance of storms in the greater part of the scale,” Oyola-Merced said. “Sometimes even though it is a Stage 1 Storm, you can get a lot of harmful rain, hurricanes and storms that can endanger lives and property.”
4. How does climate change affect the intensity of the storm?
Studies show that with increasing temperatures, it will be much easier for storms to have a rapid onset, which is defined as a 35-speed wind speed (or about 56 miles per hour) within 24 hours. These rapid changes could leave local authorities and communities in the path of a storm without time to prepare. After all, rapid warming seems to be one of the major effects of ocean warming on storm behavior. Although severe hurricanes have occurred slightly over the past few decades, the Atlantic now produces about one of these storms each season, reports Oyola-Merced. And since this phenomenon has occurred more frequently in recent decades, scientists are beginning to understand how to predict it.”The reason we don’t know much about it is because until 2005, this was a rare occurrence,” he said.
5. Does climate change reduce storms?
Yes. In recent decades, hurricanes have become more frequent as they approach the coast, reducing heavy rainfall over closed areas. Studies show that the Atlantic hurricanes are experiencing a 17% reduction in the rate of movement moving forward than in previous decades, which translates into a growth rate of about 25% of rainfall, explains Oyola-Merced.”If the system spends too much time at sea warming up now the water is too hot, it will also increase rainfall,” Oyola-Merced said. “If you have land that is already full, when it rains all the time, and you come with another storm full of rain, it is a disaster.”
With data from more than 20 satellites, NASA plays a fundamental role in space science. Before, during, and after a hurricane, NASA satellites are in a good position to identify impacts and help communities prepare, respond, and recover. Through tools such as the Disasters Mapping Portal, the agency supports regional governments and disaster management centers.When it comes to performance forecasting, NASA’s major role is its significant interaction with NOAA. NASA designs, builds, and launches a series of satellites that NOAA specializes in providing weather forecasting models.
For more Read: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2022/five-questions-to-understand-hurricanes-climate-change
