A new study has issued a stark warning about the impending global climate crisis, projecting that nearly 70% of the world’s population could face significant and rapid changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall over the next two decades if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced. This groundbreaking research was led by the CICERO Center for International Climate Research and supported by the University of Reading.
The study, published in Nature Geoscience, reveals that up to 20% of the population could still face extreme weather risks even if emissions are reduced enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Without substantial action, however, this figure could soar to 70%, underscoring the urgent need for more aggressive climate mitigation strategies.
Impact of Rapid Climate Change
The research highlights how rising global temperatures, coupled with natural weather variations, could result in decade-long periods of abrupt changes in both extreme temperatures and rainfall patterns. These changes will be particularly severe in regions within the tropics and subtropics, areas that currently account for the majority of the world’s population.
Dr. Carley Iles, lead author of the study at CICERO, emphasized the importance of examining regional impacts: “We focus on regional changes, due to their increased relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared with the global mean, and identify regions projected to experience substantial changes in rates of one or more extreme event indices over the coming decades.”
According to the study’s findings, areas encompassing 70% of the global population could see dramatic increases in both temperature and precipitation extremes within the next 20 years under a high-emissions scenario. If strong efforts to mitigate emissions are undertaken, the number of people affected could be reduced to 1.5 billion, or around 20% of the population.
The Threat of Unprecedented Extreme Events
The research suggests that these rapid changes will expose billions of people to unprecedented climate conditions, resulting in more frequent extreme weather events. Such events, like heatwaves and heavy rainfall, could have catastrophic consequences for human health, ecosystems, and infrastructure.
Heatwaves, for example, could lead to heat stress, increased mortality rates, agricultural disruptions, and challenges for energy and transport systems. Meanwhile, extreme rainfall could trigger floods, damaging homes, infrastructure, and crops, while also exacerbating soil erosion and water quality issues.
Dr. Laura Wilcox, co-author from the University of Reading, explained the complexity of these climate dynamics, particularly in relation to the ongoing efforts to reduce air pollution: “We also find that rapid clean-up of air pollution, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons. While cleaning the air is critical for health reasons, air pollution has also masked some of the effects of global warming.”
This indicates that while reducing pollution will have significant health benefits, it may also accelerate the rate of climate change, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events.
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
With the study’s alarming findings, the authors stress the urgent need for adaptation strategies to prepare for rapid climate changes that could affect billions of people in the coming decades. Dr. Bjørn H. Samset from CICERO, who contributed to the study, emphasized the gravity of the situation: “In the best case, we calculate that rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people. The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events, already in the next 1-2 decades.”
This research underscores the importance of immediate and coordinated global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Without such measures, vast regions of the world, home to billions, will be at risk of facing extreme and unpredictable weather patterns that could upend lives and livelihoods.
As the world faces these imminent climate challenges, the focus must not only be on reducing emissions but also on building resilient infrastructure, preparing communities for extreme weather events, and developing sustainable adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable populations.
This study serves as a timely reminder that while the consequences of climate inaction are grave, there is still an opportunity to reduce the scale of the crisis through swift and decisive action.
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Reference: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/extreme-weather-strengthen-rapidly-over-next-two-decades
