On March 10, China brokered an easing of tensions between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, which has serious implications for who will control the levers of the Islamic world.
On March 13, the US, UK and Australia announced the AUKUS agreement, which aims to counter China’s rapidly expanding military challenges in the Indo-Pacific with conventionally armed Virginia-class nuclear submarines, or SSNs, targeting the Chinese mainland.
while staying out of range of Beijing’s “ship killer” and “Guam killer” medium-range ballistic missiles. Under the AUKUS pact, US Virginia-class and British Astute-class SSNs will patrol the west coast of Australia to keep the PLA Navy and its expansionist plans in the Solomon Islands at bay.
India lies at the intersection of these two seemingly disparate events with serious military implications because it is at the center of the Indo-Pacific. The origins of the China-brokered Saudi-Iran détente date back to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh in December 2022, when he met with the leaders of the 21 Arab League countries with the support of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Among those who attended the Sino-Arab Summit were the Presidents of Egypt, Tunisia, Djibouti, Comoros and Mauritania, the Prime Ministers of Iraq, Morocco, Algeria and Lebanon, the Kings of Jordan and Bahrain, the Ruler of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates, the Emir of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Kuwait , the Secretary General of the Arab League and heads of international organizations.
Islamic countries
Although Iran was not represented, during this visit the groundwork was laid for the easing of tensions between Saudi Arabia and it produced results within three months, as Beijing has ties with all the players in the Islamic world including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Central Asian republics and, of course, its client state Pakistan.
China already has a naval base in Djibouti on the East African coast, a military station in Tajikistan, and financial or strategic interests in Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Chah Bahar Port in Iran, Khalifa Port in the United Arab Emirates, and Duqm Port in Oman, Beijing’s strategic footprint will grow in the Indian Ocean, much to India’s chagrin. China’s rapidly expanding three-carrier navy will attempt to dominate the Indian Ocean with the help of the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam, and in many ways control the levers of the Islamic world and its hydrocarbon power.
Although the previous UPA regime thought of a Chinese pearl strategy that could suffocate India, the fact is that if this happens, China will have the capacity to contain and contain India in its own region. It is only logical that India, with its powerful navy, will expand its footprint into Southeast Asia and the South China Sea to counter the Chinese challenge while keeping its traditional ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates intact.
China’s response to India more forceful
Although the AUKUS alliance will not have a negative impact on India, New Delhi’s association with the QUAD powers and the Malabar naval exercises (to be held off the coast of Sydney this August) will make China’s response to India more forceful. Both China and its ally Russia have criticized both the QUAD and AUKUS alliances because their cities on the east coast from Shanghai and Vladivostok could be targeted by submarine-launched ballistic missiles from AUKUS submarines positioned safely behind the first island chain east of both countries. .
Although India practices strategic autonomy, its association with QUAD and AUKUS will invite views from both China and Russia. While Russia may not act against India due to past and present ties, China may use QUAD as a pretext to build pressure on India along the Line of Actual Control and on the US and Japan by precipitating the Taiwan crisis.
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